China's newborns rise in 2024, first time in years

China reported rises in both newborns and the birth rate in 2024 after seven consecutive years of decline, buoyed by a baby boom in post-COVID Year of the Dragon and a slew of birth-friendly policies.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Friday that China recorded 9.54 million newborns last year, an increase of 520,000 compared with 2023. The birth rate for 2024 reached 6.77 per 1,000 people, reflecting an increase of 0.38 per thousand from the previous year.

Yuan Xin, vice president of the China Population Association and a professor at Nankai University, credited the growth to a spike in marriage registrations after the COVID-19 pandemic, the Year of the Dragon, and improvements in China's childbirth support system.

China is soon to wrap up the Year of the Dragon on the Chinese lunar calendar, which traditionally features a baby boom. The dragon, or loong, is a symbol of good fortune in Chinese culture and considered the most auspicious among the 12 zodiac animals.

Official data indicated that approximately 11.94 million Chinese individuals married for the first time in 2023, up 13.52 percent compared with 2022, marking the first rise in newlywed numbers since 2014.

Analysts have attributed the rebound in marriage registrations to the fact that many newlyweds had delayed marriage plans due to COVID-19.

"As most Chinese still adhere to the tradition of marrying before having children, the rise in marriages is expected to boost the birth rate within one to two years," Yuan said. "Moreover, our comprehensive birth support policies are beginning to show results."

In 2015, China ended its decades-long one-child policy, granting all couples the right to have two children. In 2021, this policy was further expanded to allow families to have a third child.

Subsequently, central and local governments introduced a range of supportive measures to build a more childbirth-friendly society. These measures included expanding childcare systems and strengthening education, housing and employment support.

Tang Linxiu, a 27-year-old saleswoman in Shanghai, had her first baby in August last year. She said having children at a young age allows for quicker recovery and better opportunity to return to work. "Besides, the Year of the Dragon carries positive connotations," Tang added.

Despite the recent increase in births, experts have cautioned that China still faces significant demographic challenges due to a declining number of women at childbearing age and a rapidly ageing population.

The NBS said on Friday that China's population on the mainland stood at 1.40828 billion by the end of 2024, a decrease of 1.39 million over that at the end of 2023, representing the third consecutive decline since 2021.

Du Peng, dean of the School of Population and Health at Renmin University of China, emphasized that discussions about population size and trends should consider the broader context of economic development.

"China's pursuit of long-term balanced population development does not necessarily indicate uninterrupted demographic growth," Du stated, noting that expecting the population to consistently rise to 1.5 billion or 1.6 billion is unrealistic.

Wang Qinchi, a researcher at the China Population and Development Research Center, told Xinhua that the decline in population may prompt a shift in China's growth model -- from relying on population growth to adapting to a shrinking population -- thus facilitating educational reforms and efforts to improve human capital.

Wang said by improving population services and adjusting industrial structures, China can further balance demographic and economic development, and foster urban-rural and regional coordination.

In the meantime, experts have urged thorough implementation of birth supportive policies, including extended maternity leave and free pregnancy check-ups. They also stressed the need to include assisted reproduction services in insurances for everyone in need.

A 33-year-old new mother surnamed Shen in the city of Shenyang, northeast China, said she was generally satisfied with government subsidies related to childbirth as well as maternity and paternity leaves.

"In the future, I hope there can be more support from the society, such as increased childcare facilities and better regulated childcare service industry," Shen added.