South Korea's Yoon ousted, early presidential election looms

South Korea's Constitutional Court on Friday removed President Yoon Suk-yeol from office by upholding his impeachment by the National Assembly.

The conservative leader became the country's second sitting president to be forcibly removed from power following former President Park Geun-hye's ouster through impeachment in 2017.

Yoon also became the third president to be impeached by the National Assembly. Late liberal President Roh Moo-hyun was impeached by the legislature in 2004 but later reinstated.

The ruling

Moon Hyung-bae, acting chief of the Constitutional Court, announced the unanimous ruling by all eight justices, which recognized that Yoon "violated the Constitution and laws by mobilizing military and police forces to obstruct the exercise of legislative authority."

Justice Moon stressed that removing Yoon from office would better protect the Constitution than allowing him to stay in power.

The court's ruling came 111 days after Yoon's impeachment motion was submitted to the court, compared to 92 days for Park's impeachment and 64 days for Roh's.

Yoon declared an emergency martial law on the night of December 3, 2024, only to be revoked by the opposition-led National Assembly hours later. Days after the announcement, on December 14, lawmakers voted to impeach Yoon. He was apprehended in the presidential office on January 15.

On January 26, Yoon was indicted under detention as a suspected ringleader of insurrection, becoming the country's first sitting president to be arrested and prosecuted. If convicted, he could face the death penalty or life imprisonment.

A Gallup Korea poll showed that 58 percent of respondents supported his impeachment, while 37 percent opposed it.

Worsening political polarization

Yoon has been facing challenges from opposition parties since he took office. In April 2024, the ruling party suffered a crushing defeat in parliamentary elections, further weakening his position. After the election defeat, Yoon had his first formal meeting with opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, which yielded little progress.

Over two years in office, Yoon used his veto power 25 times against bills passed by the opposition-led National Assembly. In return, his administration's efforts on health care and pension reform faced significant legislative resistance.

The political deadlock deepened social division. A report by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs released in March found that public perception of "social conflict" reached its highest level since 2018, with the most severe divide between progressives and conservatives.

The Chosun Ilbo newspaper observed that ideological conflicts, rather than regional or economic disparities, have become a major obstacle to South Korea's social unity.

After the impeachment vote on December 14, polarization worsened, fueling public outrage and extreme emotions. The delay in the Constitutional Court's ruling further escalated tensions between conservatives and progressives, leading to frequent street protests, said Lee Jae-mook, a professor at the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

A survey conducted by the National Index Survey showed that more than 40 percent of the respondents would not accept an impeachment outcome different from their expectations.

The election

After Yoon's removal from office, South Korea must hold an early presidential election within 60 days. Currently, the leading candidate is Lee Jae-myung from the opposition Democratic Party of Korea, though uncertainty remains.

According to the latest NBS poll, Lee Jae-myung has a 33 percent approval rating, leading by about 24 percentage points over his immediate challenger, the Minister of Employment and Labor, Kim Moon-soo.

Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon is also running. Other potential candidates include former leader of the ruling People Power Party Han Dong-hoon, Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon.

Amid deepening political polarization, the election outcome may hinge on centrist and non-partisan voters, according to media reports.